WORLD CUP 2026 EDITION • VOL. XLV NO. 155 • NORTH AMERICA • PRICE: FREE DATA • UPDATED PROJECTIONS
FIFA World Cup 2026 Analysis

Tournament
Probabilities Hub

The definitive, data-backed analysis for the 2026 tournament. Explore title chances, country rankings, group stage outlooks, and deep statistical modeling for all 48 qualified nations.

View Full Rankings Explore Groups
Host Nations USA, Canada, Mexico
Tournament Format 48 Teams, 12 Groups
Title Favorite Spain (17.4% Chance)
Tier 1

Top 6 Title Contenders

The nations with the highest statistical probability of lifting the trophy according to pre-tournament predictive modeling.

#1

Spain

Group H
Win Title17.4%
Reach Final31.3%
Reach Semi50.0%
Title Odds+475
#2

France

Group I
Win Title16.7%
Reach Final25.0%
Reach Semi43.5%
Title Odds+500
#3

England

Group L
Win Title13.3%
Reach Final25.0%
Reach Semi41.7%
Title Odds+650
#4

Brazil

Group C
Win Title11.1%
Reach Final20.0%
Reach Semi35.7%
Title Odds+800
#5

Argentina

Group J
Win Title10.0%
Reach Final19.0%
Reach Semi34.5%
Title Odds+900
#6

Portugal

Group K
Win Title9.1%
Reach Final16.7%
Reach Semi33.3%
Title Odds+1000
View All 48 Nations
✦ ✦ ✦
Home Advantage

Host Nations Outlook

A look at the statistical projections for the three co-hosts of the 2026 tournament.

#12

USA

Group D
Win Group44.4%
Reach QF26.7%
Reach Semi10.5%
Title Odds+6000
#15

Mexico

Group A
Win Group52.4%
Reach QF22.2%
Reach Semi7.7%
Title Odds+8000
#24

Canada

Group B
Win Group34.5%
Reach QF18.2%
Reach Semi5.9%
Title Odds+20000